Friday 6 September 2019

A Eton and Shrewsbury Mess


There's only one set of things that have been on everyones minds this week and it's also pointless even trying to say "this will happen" cos things are in such a state of disarray that frankly no one knows what might happen and where we'll end up.
It's around that thing we have been unable to escape in the last three years that have seen two general elections, three prime ministers and a european union election - yes Brexit.
Let's start with proroguing parliament,  a measure applied from last week by the Prime Minister and given approval for by the Head of State (The Queen) that really wound some people up saying to pause parliament is undemocratic.
First thing to say is often it is paused typically whenever a Prime Minister wishes to bring in new measures and is more often than not before the Opening of Parliament by the Queen. 
There is no legal restriction on the number of times in any term it may be nor if the number of days. Boris Johnson wanted 23 days in part for his own legislative program apart from resolving the conundrum that is Brexit and John Major got more in controversial circumstances in the 1990's.
A appeal against it in Scotland was rejected because it was found to be Lawful and all was was a matter of Political Judgement not reserved for legal interpretation.
We can say he is therefore entitled to do it.
Part of the significance around the timing is as things stood come October 31st, we would be leaving the EU with or without a deal and it is the idea of leaving without that is exercising Members of Parliament to the point the passed a law preventing it.
Let's back track a little here.
No Prime Minister said they wanted to leave without an agreement which for the avoidance of doubt is undertaking agreed by the United Kingdom AND the EU BEFORE we start trade negotiations covering tariffs, customs arrangements, plus the major issue of the Northern/Southern Irish border.
You are simply are not allowed to start those negotiations UNTIL you have agreed to leave with the EU or have left by any other means making it necessary.
The EU is insistent on the so called Irish Backstop that has Northern Ireland subject to EU customs rules to keep trade flowing without restrictions and borders with the Irish Republic unless THEY felt other workable arrangements could replace it no ifs, buts or maybes AND entirely their own call.
The UK Parliament voted three times down an agreement between then Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU that included just that because it disagreed totally with it (and treated one part of the UK Northern Ireland on leaving as if it hadn't).
In a two week period the Speaker very controversially allowed MP's themselves time to discuss and put forward alternative proposal that they did and to which MP's also rejected.
The reason we faced NO DEAL was because-actually Parliament CANNOT agree a deal itself that the EU can also agree to.
This week the same MP's decided with 27 member majority not to allow leaving without a deal  even though they themselves can't agree one having had three years to do so a point likened by the Prime Minister as to going round and round like a circus which in that respect regardless of my view is true - we are while saying they haven't been give enough time to discuss Brexit.
I could hold my head in my hands and darm well scream my beeping head off when I hear that as as far as I can that's pretty much most of what Parliament has being done in that time - debating it.
Plus the extra time has to be agreed by the EU (and they don't have to).
The trouble with agreeing the custom union is we HAVE to use EU Customs Agreements with NO say in them and no ability to make our own either so it would not be in the EU but still subject to them. Not really an exit from the EU which the voters wanted.
The problem is they can't agree a beeping thing by way of this agreement before leaving so realistically all you can do is either leave without and get a trade deal in double quick time honouring the referendum AND the european parliament votes OR apply to rejoin the EU.
Reapplying it should be remembered isn't automatically the route to restore the UK to where it was with our opt-outs and exemptions and may even involve agreeing to further measures to bind is in more such as a guaranteed period where will will not be allowed to leave, working toward the adoption of the Euro and so on. 
That would tie the hands of any incoming Prime Minister.
It's most unlikely you'd be told what an agreement would be BEFORE you decided to rejoin either  which is the converse of the Pro Remain argument against leaving which isn't an improvement on the uncertainty and fear that some people have.
Both leaving without an agreement or reapplying BOTH have risks and within sections of the community potential losers and winners and unless the EU were to set out terms for both first I honest don't think another referendum would really help.
I honestly feel getting involved in the the EU with the unwillingness of Mp's to insist on a referendum at the point of the Maastricht agreement and Lisbon Treaty failed to test the voters enthusiasm  for "ever closer union"  and I say that as someone who was favourable to the then Common Market and who with some reluctance concluded what increasingly not acceptable within the relationship was not amenable to change from within.
It was the inability of David Cameron to do that around 2015/6 that set all this off and he did tell the EU as much.
We also face the situation that the Prime Minister isn't being allowed to go the country either because a piece of legislation only passed in 2011 by David Cameron and Nick Clegg then leader of the Liberal Democratic Party only allows for breaking a fixed four year term IF you can get 66% of the Mp's to agree and they're not.
Labour are refusing UNTIL No leaving with No Deal is blocked.
That figure is a extremely high bar, almost without precedent which allows the opposition to determine in the kind of mess we are in now not allow the ball in this stand off to be put back to the people to determine by either returning the Governing party with a majority for its program or or the opposition and their alternative.   
It needs an amendment to a simple majority of Mp's in a free vote to do the job it is meant to. 

Having typed this I'll cuddle up to my plushies - beeping grown up messes! 
 

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