Craziness at the end of the Month

 It has been a turbulent week not least on the financial markets with the unprecedented reaction to the Mini Budget last Friday that appears to of spooked them with impact -we hope only temporary-on the exchange rates and mortgage product availability.

Whether or not actually in power Keir Starmer's Labour Party announced economic plans that include a chunk of what government is doing minus the scrapping of the upper level income taxes levels but adding a commitment to gather up and nationalize the energy companies that you might well think would add to borrowing to buy the companies and compensate share holders would be any better received by the markets is an interesting question.

I'm inclined to think not but hey, the current plan with them is about making political hay (from the government's problems) while the sun shines.

The problem with stagflation is being a combination of inflation and a stagnant economy the cure for any one makes the other worse so policy tends to be "chicken and egg", stimulate the economy, try to control energy costs, borrowing where needed or slash spending, increase interest rates and risk unemployment rising significantly with all the associated spending on unemployment benefits, training schemes and so on.

 

The onset of the fall reminds me what I miss still from Marmalade who died several years back, that curiosity and poise.

After the heavy rain here earlier on the week the woods were rather like this.

The End and a new era

Exiting the week here with a short post as I'm not feeling too great  looking back at the Queen's life, the very things we will remember her for even if the earliest were not things I personally lived through.

Time was when I had scrapbooks of Royal connected pictures and that but they've been missing for a good few decades, probably some "you won't need this" tidying up session but this is the next nearest thing.

Reminds me a bit of schools posters.

Funeral was long with separate stages beautifully choreographed, everyone with a role looking spotless, rich in symbolism even if ultimately sad as I got through a number of tissues.

Hundreds of thousands turned out to pay their respects, 26 million saw live coverage on tv, the weather held up for an event that was unmistakably British as much as others from he commonwealth to which she was Queen played a part.

We will miss her.

LONG LIVE THE KING!

The energy crisis

 I've purposely left out a weekly blow by blow account of the great Leadership Contest of 2022 simply because in the main it is a private affair within the Conservative Party and having covered the initial round of selecting it was all going to be private meetings and a poll.

Come Monday last, at 12:30 it was all over with with Liz Truss gaining some 57% of the vote which made her the winner which didn't surprise me

Tuesday meant Boris Johnston had to formally tender his resignation to the Queen, and have that accepted and Liz Truss arrived for the Queen to formally request her to become our 56th Prime Minister and 3rd Female P.M all as Theresa May remarked on Thursday in the Commons, Conservatives.

 

A typical household energy bill will be capped at £2,500 annually until 2024.

The huge support scheme could cost up to £150bn, but Ms Truss refused to put a figure on it, saying "extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures".

Businesses will get help, with prices capped for six months renewable.

In addition relaxation of planning determination to streamline the gap between a plan being set out and the approval will be done, fracking for gas resumed and plans for new power stations set out to meet the need for own energy rather than the reliance upon others.

Due to Her Majesties death on Thursday afternoon, Parliament being out of session, legislation to bring these measures will be delayed,

Upon the death of our Queen

Yesterday seemed very much like any other but sadly it was not to be.

In the afternoon it was announced Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth IInd had died aged 96 years and so we enter a period of ten days of mourning for our Head of State.

In that time she served with a exceptional sense of duty visiting much of the Commonwealth, supporting many organizations, hosting meetings with leaders the world over and playing her role within the Constitution of the United Kingdom appointing Prime Ministers, holding meetings with them, opening Parliament and so on.

The planned post for today was to had been about the appointment of our new Prime Minister but rightly this takes its place.

Thank You for your service.

No doubt we will hear more from our King, Charles III in days and weeks ahead.

September-a month of challenges

 Lots of things on the horizon, the return of school from Monday, the appointment of our next Prime Minister as Summer officially ends.

 

The one common denominator it seems is the need for a super hero to deal with things from moving up a form or finding new friends as you transfer school with lots of children from schools you don't know and new staff you have no idea about.

It seems to me that any incoming prime minister might well be forgiven for feeling they might given just extraordinary our times are, living with covid, the war in Ukraine with its fall out, the crazy, worrying climate change and the whole "cost of living crisis".

Quite possibly the biggest set of challenges for any generation post WW2 that affect not just private individuals but also industry, agriculture and commerce.

Dealing with Stagflation - that sticky mix of stagnating economy and rapid inflation all in one mix - has no easy cure as the requirements for each part are very much the opposite of each other so there's a chicken and egg argument between "experts" and academics over which to start with with all to real human consequences.

The recent announcements on the Energy Cap permitting cost rises up to 80% are a huge worry for individuals that go beyond even staying warm and having a hot meal but into the very food we buy and remember business has no cap so get the full rise as soon the companies apply it.

Expect some announcements with combinations of removal of "green taxes", possibly value added tax and other taxes with direct assistance for groups most impacted by it.

Help for business I'm less sure of although cases can be made for hospitality and energy intense manufacturing and all of this may need to run beyond six months

Think we need Bat Girl myself!